The Effects of Climate Change on Forest Resources
The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) invites you to learn about the likely effects that global climate change will have on the structure, function, and ecological dynamics of forest ecosystems in the United States. As Congress discusses climate change policies and legislation, it is important to develop a better understanding of these impacts.
Panel- Dr. Anthony C. Janetos, Director, The Joint Global Change Research Institute
- Dr. Allen M. Solomon, National Program Leader for Global Change Research, U.S. Forest Service
- Dr. Anthony L. Westerling, Assistant Professor, Sierra Nevada Research Institute, UC Merced
Changes in average annual temperature, precipitation, length and timing of the growing seasons, and other climate-related factors can result in a number of both short- and long-term changes to forests, including altered growth rates, changes in stand structure and dynamics, and shifts in geographic distribution of both individual tree species and forest types. In addition to these direct effects, climate change has the potential to indirectly change the structure and dynamics of the entire forest ecosystem by affecting insect infestations, wildfire patterns, and other key processes and components of forested landscapes. In 2005, mortality due to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) alone affected over 3 million acres, and this number is rapidly increasing over a significant portion of the intermountain West. Recent studies have tied both increases in catastrophic wildfires and the rapid expansion of bark beetle infestations to climate change. These changes will have dramatic and far-reaching effects on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, water management, and recreation and tourism, as well as the multi-billion dollar forest products industry in the United States.
This briefing is part of an EESI initiative focusing on sustainable forest bioenergy. To adequately assess the role that forests can play in addressing climate change, it is critical that we first have a firm understanding of the effects that climate change will have on forests. Biomass assessments and carbon sequestration formulae that pre-suppose static forest dynamics and processes will inevitably result in unreliable conclusions. As one of the key elements of the global carbon cycle, it is essential that the dynamic interaction between forests and climate must be taken into account when discussing bioenergy, carbon sequestration, afforestation or other forest-based solutions to climate change.
This briefing is open to the public and no reservations are required. For more information, contact Jetta Wong at 202-662-1885 ([email protected]) or Jesse Caputo at 202-662-1882 ([email protected])
Polar Bear Fate Heats Up
Senate Hearing
In today’s Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on the Fish and Wildlife Service’s now-illegal delay in ruling whether polar bears are an endangered species, Sen. Boxer (D-Calif.) sharply rebuked the FWS director Dale Hall. She noted that the Alaska field office sent a recommended decision to Hall on December 14th of last year. Hall refused to discuss the recommendation, saying it would be “inappropriate” to discuss internal deliberations.
Hall gave as his only reason for the delay past the January 8 deadline the need to present a “high-quality” decision that responds in full to the voluminous public comments received. He stated that there was no significant scientific uncertainty in the endangerment posed by global warming to polar bears, the only reason for delay the Endangered Species Act permits. Under repeated questioning from Sens. Boxer and Lautenberg (D-N.J.), Hall said he wanted to present a decision, if possible, by February 6th.
Hall noted that in many ways the Marine Mammals Protection Act provides stronger protection than the Endangered Species Act for polar bears even if a finding of endangerment were made – a claim criticized by Andrew Wetzler of NRDC, who noted that the MMPA does nothing to protect critical habitat, the matter which would affect the planned sale of drilling rights in the Chukchi Sea.
MMS Speaks
On that front, Ben Gemen reports for E&E News that Minerals Managment Service director Randall Luthi said any delay of the scheduled February 6 sale of Chukchi Sea leases would prevent any oil-and-gas exploration in 2008. However, he also stated that the agency position is that:there is no need for a delay, regardless of what FWS decides. He said that even in the absence of a listing, energy development is accompanied by several layers of environmental review and safeguards, including collaboration with FWS and the National Marine Fisheries Service.
Kerry Moves to Block
Meanwhile, Sen. Kerry (D-Mass.) introduced legislation yesterday that would block lease sales in the Arctic until Endangered Species Act decisions are made on the polar bear and its critical habitat, mirroring Rep. Markey’s (D-Mass.) proposed legislation in the House.
Internal Emails Show MMS Staff Outcry
Finally, Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility has released over the past week communications from MMS scientists pleading with the political appointees to delay the lease sale (contrary to Luthi’s January 17th testimony) and DOI directives forbidding MMS scientists to consider the possible threat of invasive species from opening the seas to drilling.
The threats and protections for the polar bear
Witnesses
Panel I- FWS Director Dale Hall
- Andrew Wetzler, Natural Resources Defense Council
- Margaret Williams, World Wildlife Fund
- Brendan Kelly, University of Alaska
- Richard Glenn, Alaskan Arctic resident and sea ice geologist
- J. Scott Armstrong, University of Pennsylvania Wharton School
Barrasso Once protection for the polar bear is finalized, agencies will be required by law to avoid jeopardizing the species. And the only way to do so is to reduce emissions.
10:22 Lieberman These species have inherent value. If I may go on a moment I was raised in a tradition, it says in the Bible that Adam and Eve have a responsibility to both work and protect the Garden and all that’s in it. We heard in a hearing nearly a year ago quite a remarkable accumulation of testimony. Mr. Hall identified a warming climate and the melting of sea ice as the primary reason polar bears are threatened as a species. 2/3 of the world’s polar bear population could be lost by the middle of the century. That could be a conservative projection. Some are troubled by the coincidence between the delay and the drilling leases.
10:28 Craig I’m just beginning to acquaint myself with this issue. I understand the climate change movement, the emotion involved in all of that, it’s difficult to predict the future. I’ve watched as various organizations have used the ESA as a wedge or a sledgehammer to shape human activities. I’m here to listen. I hope we don’t rush to judgment. History will only say, was it us, or was it Mother Nature? That is still an open question.
10:32 Mr. Hall We reopened and extended the comment period to allow the public to respond to the new USGS research. We expect to present a final decision to Sec. Kempthorne in the very near future. It is important to recognize that the polar bear is protected under several acts and treaties.
10:36 Boxer Did your staff present a recommendation to you?
Hall Yes. I’m working to the proper modes to explain all the questions. It’s not just making the decision, it’s the Congress and public being able to understand. This delay is my responsibility.
Boxer I wouldn’t want that responsibility to be on my shoulders. Look at Mr. Johnson. He hasn’t given one ounce of paperwork to justify his decision. So there’s a precedent. According to Bruce Woods the completed decision from the Alaska field office was sent to HQ December 14th. What was the recommendation?
Hall It would inappropriate for me to discuss internal deliberations.
Boxer You do understand there is a lease sale?
Hall Yes.
Boxer Am I correct that you have not filed a notice for a delay due to significant scientific uncertainty?
Hall I delayed to get all the information together. The quality of the answer is important. We owe those public comments to be responded to.
Hall The vast majority of the public comments supported the science that would support a listing.
We did not believe that there was ample scientific disagreement to warrant using that clause of the Act.
Boxer Have you been in communication with anyone at the White House about the decision?
Hall No, ma’am. I notified the Secretary and the Secretary notified the President.
Boxer I hope you would reconsider this.
Hall I do not take this lightly. But I am committed to getting a high quality decision out there. I don’t want to overpush our staff.
Boxer Can you do it before February 6?
Hall That was our projected date. We’re pushing to get there.
Boxer If you need some staff assistants, we would help you. It would mean a lot to me.
Hall Our staff has worked very hard.
10:52 Lautenberg Did you say February 6 is not possible?
Hall No, we’re trying to make that goal.
Lautenberg Why don’t you make the recommendation that no driling should take place?
Hall It’s a lease sale exercise. Under that exercise our staff in Alaska did work with MMS.
Lautenberg You’re a person of some significant respect in the environmental community. You understand what you’re doing will make a difference how we approach the leases. We need your help to protect the situation.
Barrasso questioning.
11:00 Hall I don’t believe it’s possible for us to meet the legal standard to reach take for emissions done somewhere else on the globe. Right now the greenhouse gas discussions are from all sources. To be able to track something from the action to the effect we have to have the science that makes the bridge. We can’t get there today. When you reach into CAFE standards and industry and our homes we don’t know how to make that responsible for the loss of polar bears. That is the requirement under the law.
11:02 Lieberman You’re a life FWS person. Did you view the USGS survey as credible?
Hall We do. The conclusion was that 2/3 of the habitat they need would be gone.
Lieberman If polar bears are declared endangered, how would that affect the Chukchi lease sale?
Hall There would be a Section 7 consultation. If the lease sales went forward, then the next steps would be industry proposals and then we would consult under the laws.
Section 7 consultation says that no agency take action that may jeopardize the continued existence of a species.
Lieberman The MMS admits between 750-1000 oil spills are likely due to this lease sale. I believe the greatest threat is ice loss. But this is also a source of danger. Would you agree?
Hall Yes, I do.
11:07 Craig This is one senator who’s not going to tell you to rush the science. Take your time. Get the science right. I don’t want you to rush it to stop a lease sale. Some senators want to use this as a blocking tactic. There’s a process.
11:10 Klobuchar I must say I’m concerned. The first petition was made in February 2005.
Hall The standards for ESA and Marine Mammal Protection Act are very close. If it were listed under the ESA one of the first things we’d want to do is synchronize the ESA and MMPA actions.
I firmly believe we should consider the Arctic as an ecosystem. There will be winners and losers.
Warner I believe the polar bear should be listed as endangered.
11:52 Wetzler There is nothing in the MMPA that requires that critical habitat be protected as there is in the ESA.
Learning from a Laureate: Science, Security and Sustainability
This Wednesday, Chairman Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming will host Dr. Rajenda Pachauri, Chairman of the Nobel Peace Prize winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in his first appearance before Congress. Last year, under Dr. Pachauri’s leadership, the IPCC produced the seminal review of the science of global warming, its current and potential future impacts and the positive strategies available to help address this looming threat.
Dr. Pachauri will share his views on the urgency of addressing global warming and the issues Congress and other political leaders must consider when crafting climate legislation this year.
Witness- Dr. Rajenda Pachauri, Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Are 1990 Levels by 2020 a Sufficient Cut?
The Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill (S. 2191), which Sen. Boxer said may come to the floor before June, sets a cap of 15% below 2005 emissions levels by 2020 for covered sectors, reducing allowed emissions to the amount last seen in 1990.
Is that near-term target sufficient, in terms of the science?
As Holmes Hummel points out, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) paints a much different picture.
At Bali, all of the Annex I signatories to the Kyoto Protocol (every industrialized country other than the US and Turkey) agreed to this roadmap, which states in convoluted language that the Annex I countries “noted” that the AR4 indicates that global emissions “need to peak in the next 10-15 years” and be reduced “well below half of levels in 2000” by 2050 “in order to stabilize their concentrations in the atmosphere at the lowest levels assessed by the IPCC to date in its scenarios.” The countries also “recognized” that the AR4 indicates that to achieve those levels “would require Annex I Parties as a group to reduce emissions in a range of 25–40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020.”
25-40% below 1990 levels is dramatically below the Lieberman-Warner target. From AR4, these “lowest levels” of concentrations are 350-400ppm CO2.
What’s the value of achieving concentrations “at the lowest levels”? The report says that using the “best estimate” for climate sensitivity (the temperature response to greenhouse gas concentrations), reaching a stable concentration of 350-400ppm CO2 leads to 2.0-2.4 degrees C warming above pre-industrial levels. But Hummel notes that the “best estimate” is just one for which half the estimates are higher and half are lower.
Thus:
To have a 50% chance of making the 2°C stabilization target, global emissions need to peak by 2015 and Annex I countries need to be 25-40% below 1990 by 2020.As AAAS president John Holdren argued in his speech Meeting the Climate Challenge (at 38:29; see also the slide presentation):
The chance of a tipping point into truly catastrophic change grows rapidly for increases in the global average surface temperature more than about 2°C above the pre-industrial level, and again we’re already committed basically to one and a half. For a better than even chance of not exceeding 2°C above the pre-industrial level, CO2 emissions must peak globally no later than 2025 and they need to be falling steadily after that. That is a great task.From the UN Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Development, an international panel of 18 top scientists (including John Holdren):
In our judgment and that of a growing number of other analysts and groups, however, increases beyond 2°C to 2.5°C above the 1750 level will entail sharply rising risks of crossing a climate “tipping point” that could lead to intolerable impacts on human well-being, in spite of all feasible attempts at adaptation.
Rep. Markey Introduces Bill to Block Alaska Drilling Pending Polar Bear Decision
Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) has released the text of legislation which, if enacted, would forbid the sale of off-shore drilling rights in the Chukchi Sea, which includes polar bear habitat, until the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service makes its long-delayed determination whether the polar bear is endangered and what its critical habitat is.
At today’s hearing, FWS director Dale Hill made it clear that he recognizes that the polar bear is definitely losing habitat and has been delaying his determination to make it “clear”; he also stated, “We need to do something about climate change starting yesterday.”
Minerals Management Service Director Randall Luthi admitted that if the lease auction goes forward, it would be impossible to revoke the leases even if they are found to be in conflict with a later endangerment listing of the polar bear.
Climate Change: Science and Solutions
The National Council for Science and the Environment invites you to participate in the 8th National Conference on Science, Policy, and the Environment to develop and advance science-based solutions to climate change.
Join us in the dialogue with leading scientists, policy makers, industry leaders, educators, and other solutions-oriented innovators to develop comprehensive strategies for protecting people and the planet against the threat of climate change.
The three-day conference will be held January 16-18, 2008, at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington, DC. An interactive agenda features skill-building workshops, targeted breakout sessions, plenary sessions, and symposia to provide participants with an expansive understanding of climate change solutions—and how we can achieve them.
Agenda
Wednesday January 16, 2008
8:00 am Registration
9:30 am – 12:00 pm Pre-conference Skill-building Workshops (registration required)
~ 20 Workshops led by partners grouped under the following themes:- Campus-based/ University Inititiatives
- Government and Policy Solutions
- Community Initiatives
- Climate Change Education: Formal and Informal
- Monitoring and Assessment Tools
- Communicating Climate Change
12:00 pm Showcase of Solutions– Exhibition and Scientific Poster presentations open
1:00 pm Keynote Address: Climate Change: Science to Solutions – What do we know? How do we act in time and in appropriate scale?
2:00 pm Plenary Presentation: Summarizing Global Change Science and the Likely Implications of Global Climate Change.
Moderator and IPCC Overview: Mohan Munasinghe, Vice Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND)- The Atmosphere and the Cryosphere- Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs, The Climate Institute
- Biodiversity and Ecological Impacts – Tom Lovejoy, President, The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment
- Human (Health and Well Being) Impacts- Sarah James, Alaskan Gwitch’in Steering Committee and Goldman Environmental prize-winner
- National Security Impacts- Sherri Goodman, General Counsel, The CNA Corporation
3:30 pm Plenary Presentation: Tackling Global Change: Key Social and Ecological Issues for Mitigation and Adaptation
Moderator: Arden Bement, Director, National Science Foundation
- Forest Management Response to Climate Change – Abigail Kimbell, Chief, US Forest Service
- Oceans – Carbon Sink or Sinking Ecosystems – Margaret Leinen, Chief Scientific Officer, Climos
- Ecosystem and Health Challenges – Mary C. Pearl, President, Wildlife Trust
- People- The Solution- Thomas Dietz, Director of the Environmental Science and Policy Program, Michigan State University
4:30 pm Plenary Roundtable: Tackling Global Change: Key Energy and Technology Issues for Stabilization
Moderator: Mark Myers , Director, US Geological Survey- Global Energy and Technology Strategy- Jae Edmonds, Laboratory Fellow and Chief Scientist, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
- Healthy Solutions for a Low Carbon Economy- Paul Epstein, Associate Director, Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
- Role of Technology in Mitigating Global Climate Change- Frank Princiotta, Director, Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division, US EPA ORD
- A Post Bali Framework for Climate Technology Innovation- Lewis Milford, President, Clean Energy Group
- Commentary on Energy and Technological Challenges- David Rodgers, Deputy Assistant Secretary, United States Department of Energy
5:30 – 6:30 pm Reception: Showcase of Solutions– Exhibition and Scientific Poster presentations
6:30 – 8:00 pm Perspectives of the Next Generation of Climate Change Leaders
Moderator: Philippe Cousteau, Co-Founder, EarthEcho
Opening remarks by Douglas Cohen, US Partnership, National Youth Initiatives and Session Co-Organizer
- The Envirolution: Alex Gamboa, Timothy Polmateer, Antuan Cannon
- Scott Beall, DoRight Enterprises
- Jessy Tolkan, Energy Action Coalition
Thursday, January 17, 2008
8:00 am Registration and Continental Breakfast
9:00 am Keynote Address: Climate Change: Science to Solutions – The Case for Business Leadership
James E. Rogers, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Duke Energy Corporation
10:00 am Plenary Roundtable: Solutions: Engaging Communities Large and Small
Moderator: Peter Senge, Founding Chairperson, Society for Organizational Learning- Energizing the Faithful – Rev. Richard Cizek, Vice-President, National Association of Evangelicals
- Engaging the Campuses – Michael Crow, President, Arizona State University
- Engaging the Populace – Bill McKibben, Author, Scholar-in-residence in Environmental Studies at Middlebury College
- Bringing Together Jobs, Justice, Environment and Community- Jerome Ringo, President, Apollo Alliance
11:00 am Plenary Roundtable: Solutions: Science and Policy on a Global Scale
Moderator and Opening Remarks: Global Leadership for Climate Action – Report from Bali – Mohamed El-Ashry, Senior Fellow, The UN Foundation and Former CEO and Chair, Global Environment Facility- Post-Kyoto International Agreements – Amb. Richard Benedick, President, National Council for Science and the Environment
- IPCC: Future Role beyond the 4th Assessment- Stephen Schneider, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University
- Global Energy Assessment- Bob Corell, Global Change Director, The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment
- European or Chinese perspective TBD
1:30 – 5:00 pm Breakout Sessions: Developing a Blueprint for the Low Carbon Economy (concurrent)
~40 Sessions grouped under the following themes:- Strategies for Stabilization, Minimization, Mitigation and Adaptation
- Stabilization/Mitigation
- End-use Technologies
- Economics and Policy
- Population and Consumption
- Adaptation
- Stabilization/Mitigation
- Guiding and Fostering Multi-disciplinary Research
- Expanding Understanding: Information, Education and Communication
- Communicating Science to Decisionmakers and the Public
- Managing Global Change Science Information
- Integrating Global Change into Education at All Levels and Across the Curriculum
5:30 pm Lifetime Achievement Award
6:00 pm 8th John H. Chafee Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment
“Meeting the Climate-Change Challenge” given by
John P. Holdren, President and Director, The Woods Hole Research Center
7:00 pm Reception
Friday, January 18, 2008
8:00 am Continental Breakfast
8:45 am American Perspective on Climate Change – Jon Krosnick, Professor of Communication, Political Science, and Psychology, Stanford University
9:00 am Plenary Roundtable
Developing Political Solutions to Climate Change (discussion with political leaders from Administration, Congress, state, local and other national governments)
Moderator: Ray Suarez , Senior Correspondent, The News Hour
10:30 am Symposia – Concurrent
- Beyond Kyoto – Elements of a 20202 International Agreement– Moderator: Mohamed El-Ashry, Senior Fellow, The UN Foundation and Former CEO and Chair, Global Environment Facility; Dilip Ahuja, National Institute of Advanced Studies; Scott Barrett, Professor and Director, International Policy Program, Johns Hopkins University
- Climate Change and International Development – Moderator: Mohan Munasinghe, Vice Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND); Thomas Schelling, University of Maryland; Adrian Vazquez, Commission for Environmental Cooperation; Ralph Cicerone, President, National Academy of Sciences
- Role of Philanthropic Foundations: Promoting Strategic Initiatives on Climate Change – Moderator: Sharon Alpert, Program Officer of the Environmental Program, Surdna Foundation ; Andrew Bowman, Director of the Climate Change Initiative, Doris Duke Charitable Foundation; Kathleen Welch, Deputy Director of the Environmental Program, the Pew Charitable Trusts; Eric Heitz, President, the Energy Foundation; Elizabeth Chadri, Program Officer for Conservation and Sustainable Development, John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
- Business and Finance: Opportunities and Challenges from Climate Change – Moderator: Jeffrey Leonard , CEO, Global Environment Fund; Bruce Schlein, Vice President Environmental Affairs, Citi; Mindy Lubber, President, CERES; Bruce Mundiel, Swiss Re; Mark Tercek, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs’ Center for Environmental Markets
- Forging Alliances Between Business and Society – US Climate Action Partnership; Tim Mealey, Senior Partner, Meridian Institute; DuPont; Exelon Corporation; Environmental Defense; The Nature Conservancy; Pew Center on Global Climate Change; Shell
- Legislative Agenda for Addressing the Carbon Problem –L. Jeremy Richardson, 2007-2008 AAAS Roger Revelle Fellow in Global Stewardship; Margaret Turnbull , Space Telescope Science Institute; Ken Colburn, Center for Climate Strategies; Lexi Shultz, Representative for Climate Policy, the Union of Concerned Scientists
- Engaging State and Local Government: Developing and Implementing Climate Action Plans- Dan Kammen, University of California- Berkeley
- Climate Scientists and Decisionmakers: the Communication Interface – Moderator:Rebecca J. Romsdahl, Department of Earth Systems Science and Policy, University of North Dakota;Stacy Rosenberg, Assistant Professor, Department of Politics & Environmental Studies, SUNY Potsdam; Deborah Cowman, Assistant Research Scientist, Institute for Science, Technology and Public Policy, Texas A&M University; Chris Pyke, Constructive Technologies Group, Inc.; Kit Batten, Director of Environmental Policy, Center for American Progress; David Bookbinder, Senior Attorney, Sierra Club; Roger Pulwarty, National Drought Information System, NOAA, Boulder, CO
- Communicating Climate Science to the Public Through the Media – Moderator: Deborah Potter, NewsLab; David Malakoff, Editor/Correspondent, NPR Science Desk; Stephen Schneider, Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University; Joe Witte, Meteorologist, WJLA-TV; Doyle Rice, USA Today Weather Editor; Sara Espinoza, National Environmental Education Foundation
- Science for Carbon Management – Eric Sundquist, Research Geologist, US Geological Society
12:30 pm Buffet Lunch (with youth mentoring tables)
2:00 pm Presidential Candidates Forum: What Will the Next President do to Manage Climate Change?
Each Candidate is invited to attend or send a representative. Opening statements and moderated discussion.
Moderator: Vijay Vaitheeswaran , Global Correspondent, The Economist, using information from the Presidential Climate Action Plan led by former Senator Gary Hart and from other sources
Around the Web: DNI, Biofuels, China, Coal Corruption
No, no, no, not at all. Terrorism can kill a lot of people, but it can’t fundamentally challenge the ability of the nation to exist. Fascism could have done that. Communism could have. I think our issue going forward is more engagement with the world in terms of keeping it on a reasonable path, so another ism doesn’t come along and drive it to one extreme or another.And we have to some balance in terms of equitable distribution of wealth, containment of contagious disease, access to energy supplies, and development of free markets. There are national security ramifications to global warming.
Biofuels Technology Review has an extensive piece on the Price of Biofuels, covering the ramifications of America’s heavy investment in corn ethanol and the uncertain future of cellulosic ethanol. The New York Times reports Europe May Ban Imports of Some Biofuel Crops as it recognizes the drastic environmental harm and negative global-warming consequences of replacing rainforest with palm-oil plantations.
China In Dealing with the Dragon, Paul Krugman argues that China should be the U.S.’s primary foreign policy concern, in large part because of climate change, “which will eventually be recognized as the most crucial problem facing America and the world — maybe not today, and maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of our lives.”
Coal Heather Moyer at Sierra Club’s Clean Energy Watch points to another New York Times piece that reports:A justice of the West Virginia Supreme Court and a powerful coal-company executive met in Monte Carlo in the summer of 2006, sharing several meals even as the executive’s companies were appealing a $50 million jury verdict against them to the court.
Natural CO2 Sinks and their Policy Implications: A Closer Look at Where Current CO2 Levels are Headed, in Historical Context
What is the current and historic annual rate of growth in CO2 emissions? What is the future trajectory of CO2 emissions and concentrations based on present rates of emissions? Is the natural uptake of CO2 by the biosphere limited? If so, what is the limitation and what are the limiting factors? More importantly, what is the implication of the biosphere having limited capacity to absorb atmospheric CO2? Does this limitation have implications as to how long CO2 resides in the atmosphere?
Moderator:
Dr. Anthony Socci, Senior Science Fellow, American Meteorological Society
Speakers- Dr. Ralph F. Keeling, Professor, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA
- Dr. David Archer, Professor, Department of. Geophysical Sciences and the College, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
Program Summary
The Mauna Loa CO2 Record: From the Era of Discovery to the Era of Consequences
2008 marks the 50th anniversary of the Mauna Loa and South Pole CO2 records, which are the longest continuous time series of atmospheric CO2 levels. These records have played a critical role in advancing research on global warming by establishing the reality of increasing CO2 and providing a quantitative basis to assess the impact of human activities on atmospheric CO2. From 1958 to 2008, the CO2 levels at Mauna Loa increased from 315 to 385 part-per-million. The records establish that an amount of CO2 equivalent to 56% of the global emissions of fossil-fuel burning over this period has been retained in the air. The remaining 44% has therefore been absorbed by the oceans and land plants. Our ability to predict the impact of future emissions on the CO2 loading of the atmosphere and hence future climate hinges critically not only on future CO2 emissions, but also on the behavior of these land and ocean sinks.
Over the past decade, our understanding of these sinks has improved, based in part on observations of trends in atmospheric O2 concentration. Our knowledge of these sinks establishes securely that large reductions in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions will be required over the next few decades to stabilize CO2 below “dangerous” levels. Recent work has also raised concerns that the sinks may be weakening due to effects of global warming on the stores of carbon in land ecosystems or in the oceans. This subject remains clouded in uncertainty, however. Even larger and more immediate emissions reductions may be necessary if such “positive feedbacks” turn out to be important.
Carbon Dioxide in Historical Context: Implications for Policy
The uptake of fossil fuel into the biosphere is limited, both in how fast the carbon will be taken up, and in the total amount of CO2 that will be absorbed, by the ways in which the carbon cycle on Earth works. The carbon cycle today is taking up fossil fuel CO2, slowing considerably the rate of CO2 rise and warming. But CO2 concentration measurements from ice cores from the past 800,000 years suggest that ultimately the carbon cycle may act as an amplifier of climate change, releasing carbon during times of warmer climate.
The biosphere on land is currently in net balance, with natural uptake in some areas compensating for deforestation in other areas. The land biosphere could act as either a source or a sink in the coming century, but ultimately would be swamped by the amount of fossil fuel carbon available.
About three quarters of of the carbon we release will dissolve in the oceans on a time scale of a few centuries. Uptake into the oceans will slow as the rising CO2 concentration exhausts the buffer chemistry of seawater, its ability to dissolve more CO2. CO2 is also less soluble in warmer water than cold, so that CO2 uptake will decline further with climate warming. There is recent evidence that CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean, the main invasion route into the deep sea, has been slowing even more quickly than expected based on those two reasons alone, suggesting that CO2 uptake into the ocean is also slowing because of changes in ocean circulation. The ocean might take up CO2 more slowly if its overturning circulation stagnates in a warmer world.
Carbon cycle models agree that even after the ocean and land have taken their fill of fossil fuel CO2, between 15 and 30%, will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years. Many of the most profound changes in Earth’s climate will take place on these long time scales, such as the melting of ice sheets, permafrost soils, and methane hydrates in the ocean. Sea level in the past has changed by 5 to 20 meters for each degree C change in Earth’s temperature. These results imply that the long-term change in sea level from fossil fuels could be 100 times worse than the forecast for the year 2100.
Biographies
Dr. Ralph Keeling is professor of geochemistry at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego. His research focuses on atmospheric chemistry, the carbon cycle, and climate change. He is considered a leading investigator of the global oxygen cycle for his precise measurements and analysis techniques. In the late 1980s, Dr. Keeling developed his method for measuring atmospheric oxygen levels utilizing interferometry techniques in the laboratory. Since 1989 his group has been measuring changes in atmospheric oxygen and carbon dioxide levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. He also directs the Scripps CO2 program, responsible for long-term CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa, South Pole, and other stations. Dr. Keeling received a B.S. in physics from Yale University in 1979, and a Ph.D in applied physics from Harvard University in 1988. He has been affiliated with Scripps since 1992. Prior to that he served as a visiting scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and completed postdoctoral fellowships at Harvard and NCAR. He later received the Rosenstiel Award from the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science in 1992, the Outstanding Publication Award from NCAR in 1992. Dr. Keeling is a member of the American Geophysical Union and has approximately sixty peer-reviewed publications to date.
Dr. David Archer has been a professor in the Department of The Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago since 1993. Dr. Archer has published over 70 scientific papers on a wide range of topics within the global carbon cycle and its relation to global climate. Dr. Archer teaches classes on global warming, environmental chemistry, and geochemistry. He has also written a text book for non-science major undergraduates called Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast, and is currently working on a book for a lay audience putting the global warming climate event into the context of geologic time in the past and the future, to be published by Princeton University Press, and another book with coauthor Stefan Rahmstorf which will be an “unofficial guide” to the IPCC Fourth Scientific Assessment Report, to be published by Cambridge University Press.