05/13/2025 at 02:00PM
Full committee markup.
The bill released would add $5 trillion to primary deficits through 2034 as written, and over $5.5 trillion to primary deficits if made permanent.
The draft would not only extend but also expand most parts of the TCJA. For example, extensions of tax rate cuts would be coupled with a further increase in most bracket thresholds – effectively undoing the original TCJA’s savings from indexing the tax code to the chained CPI. The estate tax exemption would also be increased from roughly $14 million to $15 million. And the 20 percent 199A pass-through deduction would be increased to 22 percent and expanded in other ways.
At the same time, the draft would temporarily boost the standard deduction by an additional $1,000 to $2,000 for four years and boost the Child Tax Credit by an additional $500 (from $2,000 to $2,500). We estimate these expansions will add about $300 billion to the deficit impact of extension as written but roughly $700 billion if made permanent.