UN Report Says Global Carbon Neutrality Should be Reached by Second Half
of Century, Demonstrates Pathways to Stay Under 2°C Limit
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions Including Non-CO2 Must Shrink To Net Zero
by 2100
Emissions Gap May Widen by 2030 but Low Carbon Path Offers Opportunities
for the Future
– In order to limit global temperature rise to 2o C and head off the
worst impacts of climate change, global carbon neutrality should be
attained by mid-to-late century. This would also keep in check the
maximum amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be emitted into the
atmosphere while staying within safe temperature limits beyond 2020,
says a new report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
Exceeding an estimated budget of just 1,000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide
(Gt CO2) would increase the risk of severe,
pervasive, and in some cases irreversible climate change impacts.
Released days ahead of the UN Conference on Climate Change in Lima,
Peru, UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2014 is the
fifth in a series that examines whether the pledges made by countries
are on track to meet the internationally agreed under 2°C target. It is
produced by 38 leading scientists from 22 research groups across 14
countries.
Building on the findings of the Fifth Assessment Report by the
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows the global
emission guardrails that would give a likely chance of staying within
the 2°C limit, including a peaking of emissions within the next ten
years, a halving of all greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century; and in
the second half of the century, carbon neutrality followed by net zero
total greenhouse gas emissions.
“An increase in global temperature is proportional to the build-up of
long-lasting greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially
CO2. Taking more action now reduces the need
for more extreme action later to stay within safe emission limits,” said
Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director of
UNEP.
“In a business-as-usual scenario, where little progress is made in the
development and implementation of global climate policies, global
greenhouse gas emissions could rise to up to 87 Gt CO2e by 2050, way
beyond safe limits.”
“Countries are giving increasing attention to where they realistically
need to be by 2025, 2030 and beyond in order to limit a global
temperature rise to below 2°C. This fifth Emissions Gap Report
underlines that carbon neutrality-and eventually net zero or what
some term climate neutrality-will be required so that what
cumulative emissions are left are safely absorbed by the globe’s natural
infrastructure such as forests and soils,” added Mr. Steiner.
“The Sustainable Development Goals underscore the many synergies between
development and climate change mitigation goals. Linking development
policies with climate mitigation will help countries build the
energy-efficient, low-carbon infrastructures of the future and achieve
transformational change that echoes the true meaning of sustainable
development,” he concluded.
To avoid exceeding the budget, global carbon neutrality should be
reached between 2055 and 2070, meaning that annual anthropogenic
CO2 emissions should hit net zero by then on
the global scale. Net zero implies that some remaining
CO2 emissions could be compensated by the same
amount of carbon dioxide uptake, or ‘negative’ emissions, so long as the
net input to the atmosphere due to human activity is zero, the report
finds.
Taking into account non-CO2 greenhouse gases, including methane, nitrous
oxide and hydrofluorocarbons, total global greenhouse gas emissions need
to shrink to net zero between 2080 and 2100.
Andrew Steer, President and CEO of the World
Resources Institute said, “Negotiating a global climate deal should not
be based on emotions or political whims, it should be driven by science
and facts. This report provides one of the most clear eyed, technical
analyses of global emissions that shows how country commitments and
actions measure against science.”
“Unfortunately, the world is not currently headed in the right
direction. But, with the growing momentum for global climate action, we
have the opportunity to close the emissions gap and keep within the
limits of what the science says is needed to prevent the worst impacts
of climate change.”
Since 1990, global greenhouse gas emissions have grown by more than 45
per cent. To have a likely chance of staying below the 2o C limit,
global greenhouse gas emissions should drop by about 15 per cent or more
by 2030 compared to 2010, and be at least 50 per cent lower by 2050 on
the way to net zero.
Past issues of the Emissions Gap Report focused on good practices across
different sectors and their ability to stimulate economic activity and
development, while reducing emissions.
This year, the report also looks at how international development
targets and corresponding policies at the national level can bring about
multiple benefits, including climate change mitigation focusing in
particular on energy efficiency.
Bridging the Gap
The 2014 Emissions Gap Report defines the emissions gap as the
difference between emission levels in 2025 and 2030 consistent with
meeting climate targets versus the levels expected if country pledges
are met.
Scientists estimate the gap in 2020 at up to 10 Gt CO2e and in 2030 at
up to 17 Gt CO2e. Relative to business-as-usual emissions in 2030 (68 Gt
CO2e), the gap is even bigger at 26 Gt CO2e.
Despite the fact that the gap is not getting smaller, the report
estimates that it could be bridged if available global emissions
reductions are fully exploited: The potential for emission reductions in
2030 (relative to business-as-usual emissions) is estimated to be 29 Gt
CO2e.
The Cost of Delayed Action
Postponing rigorous action until 2020 will provide savings on mitigation
costs in the near-term but will bring much higher costs later on in
terms of:
• Higher rates of global emission reductions in the medium-term; •
Lock-in of carbon-intensive infrastructure; • Dependence on using all
available mitigation technologies in the medium-term; • Greater costs
of mitigation in the medium- and long-term, and greater risks of
economic disruption; • Reliance on negative emissions; and • Greater
risks of failing to meet the 2°C target, which would lead to
substantially higher adaptation challenges and costs.
Energy Efficiency and the Post-2015 Development Agenda
Not only does energy efficiency reduce or avoid greenhouse emissions,
but it can also increase productivity and sustainability through the
delivery of energy savings, and support social development by increasing
employment and energy security.
For example:
It is estimated that between 2015 and 2030, energy efficiency
improvements worldwide could avoid at least 2.5–3.3 Gt CO2e annually.
The International Energy Agency reports that end-use fuel and
electricity efficiency could save 6.8 Gt CO2e, and power generation
efficiency and fossil fuel switching could save another 0.3 Gt CO2e by
2030.
Countries and other actors are already applying policies that are
beneficial to both sustainable development and climate mitigation. About
half the countries in the world have national policies for promoting
more efficient use of energy in buildings.
About half are working on raising the efficiency of appliances and
lighting. Other national policies and measures are promoting electricity
generation with renewable energy, reducing transport demand and shifting
transport modes, reducing process-related emissions from industry, and
advancing sustainable agriculture. The Sustainable Development Goals
being discussed show the many close links between development and
climate change mitigation goals.
For example, efforts to eradicate energy poverty, promote universal
access to cleaner forms of energy, and double energy efficiency—if fully
realized—would go a long way towards putting the world on a path
consistent with the climate target.
For more information and to arrange interviews with experts on the
topic, please contact:
Shereen Zorba, Head of News and Media, United Nations Environment
Programme, [email protected], Tel. +254 788 526 000
Hugh Searight, News and Media, United Nations Environment Programme,
[email protected], Tel. 202 957 6978
Venue: National Press Club
United Nations Environment Programme
District of Columbia
11/19/2014 at 11:00AM