Republicans are gearing up to move their agenda through Congress via “reconciliation”—the same process they used during the first Trump administration to slash the corporate tax rate and give breaks to the top 1 percent. Understanding reconciliation is essential for tracking the GOP’s policy plans, anticipating impacts on the rest of us, and holding lawmakers accountable to the people they serve.
Join the Congressional Progressive Caucus Center, Indivisible, and the National Women’s Law Center as we break down what you need to know about reconciliation and what it means for our communities. We’ll explain why this process matters, discuss history’s lessons learned, and answer YOUR questions!
Speakers:
Tricha Maharaj, Indivisible
Bobby Kogan, Center for American Progress
Catherine Rowland, CPC Center
Ben D’Avanzo, National Immigration Law Center
Zoom’s automated captioning will be available during the webinar. All registrants will receive a follow-up email with a captioned recording of this briefing.
Please note that our webinars are recorded and often posted to our website and/or social media. If one of our panelists reads your comment or question, or if you come off mute to ask your question, your name or voice may appear in the recording.
House Opposition Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has called on the entire House Democratic caucus to meet at noon on Tuesday, February 25 at the East Capitol Steps to oppose the Republican budget, in conjunction with constituents “whose lives will be devastated by the Republican budget scheme.” The vote on the budget is expected at 6 pm.
We are asking all Members of the House Democratic Caucus to join us on the East Capitol Steps at 12:00 noon on Tuesday. At that time, we will make sure that the country can hear from everyday Americans whose lives will be devastated by the Republican budget scheme.
The plan, to be marked up by the committee Feb. 12 and 13, assumes $342 billion over four years divided between border security, the Pentagon and Coast Guard: $175 billion for the border, $150 billion for defense and $17 billion for the Coast Guard.
The new funding would be fully paid-for, but how they do that specifically is up to the authorizing committees charged with drafting the implementing bill. Committees given instructions to come up with the offsets are given low targets — at least $1 billion — to provide them with maximum flexibility. But the expectation is those committees will exceed those targets.
Provisions to expand domestic energy production through making more areas available for oil and gas drilling has long been part of the plan. Graham on Friday also said the budget assumes repeal of the methane emissions fee on oil and gas producers that was enacted as part of the 2022 clean energy reconciliation package.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the methane fee will cost the industry about $6 billion over 10 years, so the Environment and Public Works panel would have to account for that cost in its reconciliation submission due next month.
Graham said the budget assumes the reconciliation package will provide funding to finish a southern border wall and upgrade border security technology, increase the number of detention beds for those who cross the border illegally, and expand staffing of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and border patrol agents, attorneys who prosecute immigration-related offenses and immigration judges.
The funds provided for defense would go to expanding the Navy and strengthening the industrial base needed to build ships, developing an air and missile defense system and overhauling the nation’s nuclear defense.
The reconciliation instructions direct the following Senate committees to increase or reduce the deficit over 10 years in the following amounts:
Agriculture: Reduce deficit by at least $1 billion.
Armed Services: Increase deficit by no more than $150 billion.
Commerce: Increase deficit by no more than $20 billion.
Energy and Natural Resources: Reduce deficit by at least $1 billion.
Environment and Public Works: Increase deficit by no more than $1 billion.
Finance: Reduce deficit by at least $1 billion.
Health, Education, Labor and Pensions: Reduce deficit by at least $1 billion.
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: Increase deficit by no more than $175 billion.*
Judiciary: Increase deficit by no more than $175 billion.*
*The two committees share jurisdiction on border and immigration policy and the total figure they will report out combined is $175 billion, not twice that amount.
Although the Senate blueprint is more of a “shell” budget to set the table for the initial reconciliation package, it does make some assumptions about the 10-year spending and revenue trajectory of the federal government.
The blueprint’s tables show an aggressive $11.5 trillion net spending reduction from the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent 10-year baseline. Coupled with $3.7 trillion in revenue losses from an eventual tax cut package, Graham’s resolution targets nearly $8 trillion in lower deficits over a decade.
The House proposal makes room for massive tax cuts for corporations and the ultra-wealthy. The Senate’s proposal does not.
The House aims to spend a lot more than the Senate does ($4.8 trillion in the House vs. $521 billion in the Senate). Again, this is largely because of taxes.
The House’s proposed cuts are way bigger than the Senate’s ($1.5 trillion with a goal of $2 trillion in the House vs. at least $4 billion in the Senate).
The House wants to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. The Senate’s proposal doesn’t touch the debt ceiling.
The budget directs the House Energy and Commerce Committee to make at least $880 billion in cuts. This committee oversees Medicaid, the health insurer for more than 70 million Americans. Moreover, the resolution states, “it is the goal of this concurrent resolution to reduce mandatory spending by $2 trillion over the budget window.”
The House proposal tells the Agriculture Committee to find $230 billion in cuts. This committee oversees the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), often called “food stamps”—a program that feeds more than 40 million Americans. Moreover, again, the resolution states, “it is the goal of this concurrent resolution to reduce mandatory spending by $2 trillion over the budget window.”
Council for a Responsible Budget:
The budget resolution’s instructions include a net $3.3 trillion in allowable deficit increases – or nearly $4 trillion including interest in additional debt by 2034.
The budget resolution includes $3.3 trillion of net allowable deficit increases – from $4.8 trillion of deficit increases somewhat offset by $1.5 trillion of required savings – that, with interest, we estimate would allow nearly $4 trillion of additional debt.
Passing a reconciliation bill consistent with these instructions would increase debt in 2034 (the last year of the budget) to 126 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to 117 percent under current law.
The budget’s economic assumptions are overly aggressive, and the ultimate direction of the economic effects is likely ambiguous; if they resulted in modestly positive economic feedback, we estimate debt would be 123 percent of GDP by 2034, or if they resulted in modestly negative feedback, we estimate debt would be 129 percent of GDP by 2034.
The window of the budget – FY 2025 through 2034 – includes one year where the TCJA doesn’t need to be extended (2025) and one less year of extension (2035) than a 2026-2035 budget would include, which could make the $4.8 trillion of tax cuts and spending increases in this budget window translate to $5.5-$6 trillion of ten-year increases.
Fierce Healthcare:
The budget framework calls for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and increases the debt limit by $4 trillion. It also instructs the Energy and Commerce Committee to slash spending by $880 billion over 10 years, which is expected to include major Medicaid reform, and the Education and Workforce Committee to eliminate $330 billion in spending over 10 years.
The plan, to be marked up by the committee Feb. 12 and 13, assumes $342 billion over four years divided between border security, the Pentagon and Coast Guard: $175 billion for the border, $150 billion for defense and $17 billion for the Coast Guard.
The new funding would be fully paid-for, but how they do that specifically is up to the authorizing committees charged with drafting the implementing bill. Committees given instructions to come up with the offsets are given low targets — at least $1 billion — to provide them with maximum flexibility. But the expectation is those committees will exceed those targets.
Provisions to expand domestic energy production through making more areas available for oil and gas drilling has long been part of the plan. Graham on Friday also said the budget assumes repeal of the methane emissions fee on oil and gas producers that was enacted as part of the 2022 clean energy reconciliation package.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the methane fee will cost the industry about $6 billion over 10 years, so the Environment and Public Works panel would have to account for that cost in its reconciliation submission due next month.
Graham said the budget assumes the reconciliation package will provide funding to finish a southern border wall and upgrade border security technology, increase the number of detention beds for those who cross the border illegally, and expand staffing of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and border patrol agents, attorneys who prosecute immigration-related offenses and immigration judges.
The funds provided for defense would go to expanding the Navy and strengthening the industrial base needed to build ships, developing an air and missile defense system and overhauling the nation’s nuclear defense.
The reconciliation instructions direct the following Senate committees to increase or reduce the deficit over 10 years in the following amounts:
Agriculture: Reduce deficit by at least $1 billion.
Armed Services: Increase deficit by no more than $150 billion.
Commerce: Increase deficit by no more than $20 billion.
Energy and Natural Resources: Reduce deficit by at least $1 billion.
Environment and Public Works: Increase deficit by no more than $1 billion.
Finance: Reduce deficit by at least $1 billion.
Health, Education, Labor and Pensions: Reduce deficit by at least $1 billion.
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: Increase deficit by no more than $175 billion.*
Judiciary: Increase deficit by no more than $175 billion.*
*The two committees share jurisdiction on border and immigration policy and the total figure they will report out combined is $175 billion, not twice that amount.
Although the Senate blueprint is more of a “shell” budget to set the table for the initial reconciliation package, it does make some assumptions about the 10-year spending and revenue trajectory of the federal government.
The blueprint’s tables show an aggressive $11.5 trillion net spending reduction from the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent 10-year baseline. Coupled with $3.7 trillion in revenue losses from an eventual tax cut package, Graham’s resolution targets nearly $8 trillion in lower deficits over a decade.
The Budget also includes nearly $1.8
billion
to support a free and open, connected, secure, and resilient Indo-
Pacific Region and the Indo-Pacific Strategy, and $400 million for the
Countering the People’s Republic of China Malign Influence Fund.
House Foreign Affairs Committee
Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation Subcommittee
$190.6 million for energy saving performance contracts or utility
energy services contracts for the Navy
$3.1 million for energy saving performance contracts or utility energy
services contracts for the Marine Corps
$33.9 million to deploy renewable energy, energy storage, and energy
or water efficiency improvements for the Navy
$16.9 million to deploy renewable energy, energy storage, and energy
or water efficiency improvements for the Marine Corps
$108.5 million for Navy erosion control projects and seawall repair,
and future environmental resilience projects
$13.2 million for Marine Corps’ natural resources projects that
support installation and training resiliency to climate change
$17.9 million for the Navy to enable revised installation master plans
to incorporate impacts from climate change, and the development,
planning, design, and execution of future projects to address climate
impacts
$16.5 million enhance the energy security posture of Marine Corps
installations, and accelerate advanced micro-grid deployment
$12.9 million for manpower to increase energy efficiency expertise
within the Navy’s energy offices
$6.3 million Navy investment for projects to develop higher efficiency
Gallium Nitride (GaN) High Power Amplifiers, used in maritime advanced
technology radar and surface electronic warfare systems
$8.6 million for the Navy to fund $1.3 million in operational energy
upgrades provides modernizations for Littoral Combat Ship (LCS)
propulsion systems and $7.3 million in research and development
efforts for the Navy’s Integrated Power System (IPS)
$7.9 million for the Marine Corps Medium Tactical Vehicle Replacement
(MTVR) Family of Vehicles, to set next generation vehicle standards
for fuel efficiency and vehicle hybrid electrification
$13.5 million for Marine Corps programs to set new standards for the
Family of Mobile Power Systems, Family of Medium Tactical Vehicle
Replacement, and Family of Expeditionary Fuel Systems
$94.8 million more for the Navy’s Integrated Power System (IPS)
$10.5 million in carbon-sequestration fundes for the Navy to fund
priority projects, such as wetland and forest restoration, that
increase base resiliency
$5.4 million for Navy to fund the battery development safety program
that focuses on the safe implementation and fielding of high energy
batteries through a rigorous certification process
$0.9 million for Navy to fund research into microbial fuel cells
(MFCs), an energy resource that can operate in marine sediments and
provide underwater power
$7.3 million for Navy for low-carbon fuel research, such as hydrogen,
to help replace the 1 billion gallons of fuel the Navy uses annually
$43.2 million in Navy funding for efficiency technologies such as
micro-vanes, refueling drogue stabilization, engine wash, blade
coatings, and mission planning to increase the efficiency of Naval
aircraft
$4.8 million for Marine Corps’ Family of Mobile Power Systems,
consisting of a wide range of current and emerging technologies for
mobile power generation, storage, and distribution systems
$10.5 million for Navy to fund the assessment, development,
maturation, and transition of power (batteries and fuel cells),
thermal management (models and fluid transfer), and engine and
airframe efficiency technologies to increase the mission capability of
Naval aircraft
$10.8 million for the Marine Corps supports development of a variety
of technologies including Cold Weather and Mountaineering equipment,
Family of Shelters, and the offices that conduct this research
$49.0 million for Navy to fund the Naval Platform Operational
Endurance & Climate Resiliency Science project to advance design tools
focused on climate resilience and predicting emissions from platforms.
Pursuing technology development efforts to impact climate remediation,
including evaluation of Low Global Warming Potential refrigerants,
Subsea & Seabed Warfare Energy Harvesting, and Direct Air Capture &
Blue Carbon fuel synthesis. Funding also supports electrical and
auxiliary system and component technology to dramatically improve
naval capabilities by providing energy and power resiliency
$3.7 million for the Navy funds an effort to improve integration of
weather and ocean forecasts into ship routing, ship response and
propulsion efficiency planning
$7.7 million for war-games for the Navy looking at critical
infrastructure protection
$0.4 million for the Marine Corps Prepositioning Program – Norway that
supports the withdrawal of equipment and supplies for ashore
prepositioning sites in support of contingency preparedness for cold
weather related exercises
In regards to climate change, the ‘23 budget increases climate
investments by a total of $137
million
across the shore providing funding for electric vehicle leasing,
charging stations, installation resiliency, and natural resource carbon
sequestration projects.
The Homeland Security Act, as amended by the Post-Katrina Emergency
Management Reform Act, directs FEMA to reduce
the loss of life and property and protect the nation from all hazards,
including natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and other disasters
through a risk-based, comprehensive emergency management system of
preparedness, protection, response, recovery, and mitigation. As of
January 2022, FEMA employed more than 22,000
personnel – including term and intermittent employees – to carry out the
Agency’s mission.
The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act
(Stafford Act) authorizes the Federal government to provide assistance
to State, territorial, and local governments, tribal nations, eligible
private nonprofit organizations, and individuals affected by an incident
that receives a Presidential major disaster or emergency declaration.
The Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018 (DRRA, Division D of P.L.
115-254) includes reforms to improve FEMA’s
ability to carry out its mission and better prepare the nation for
disasters. FEMA continues to make progress
implementing its provisions.
FEMA also delivers the National Flood
Insurance Program (NFIP), pre-disaster and post-disaster mitigation
grant programs, flood mapping, disaster planning, exercise management
and coordination, urban search and rescue coordination, the Homeland
Security Grant Program, the Assistance to Firefighters Grant Program,
and other grants, training, and exercise programs.
The FY 2023 President’s Budget includes
increased funding for programs and activities that support the goals
outlined in the 2022-2026 FEMA Strategic Plan:
Civil Rights and Reasonable Accommodation Services and Support ($3.9M, 3
FTE)
Funds enable the Office of Equal Rights to enforce and ensure compliance
with FEMA’s civil rights responsibilities and
proactively and comprehensively respond to civil rights complaints filed
by disaster survivors and members of the public regarding
FEMA programs.
Privacy Organization Program ($2.0M, 4 FTE)
FEMA will significantly advance its Privacy
Program by expanding participation and customer support for
FEMA operations and State, local, tribal, and
territorial (SLTT) stakeholders to enhance privacy compliance and
bolster privacy safeguards during rapid-paced response and recovery
efforts. FEMA will use an additional $2.2M
from DRF carryover balances to support this
program in FY 2023 for a total increase of
$4.2M.
Funds will assist FEMA in providing more
equitable investment in disadvantaged communities and aid underserved
and marginalized communities to develop the structures, relationships,
and planning processes that promote equitable access to recovery
resources post-disaster. FEMA will also focus
SLTT capacity building to mitigate existing
gaps in steady-State services and resources to communities.
Flood Hazard Mapping and Risk Analysis ($74.5M)
The Budget includes an additional $74.5M to further
FEMA’s inventory of maps showing future
conditions for a program total of $507.7M. These funds may also be used
to support the Federal Flood Risk Mitigation Standard (FFRMS) and its
climate-informed science activities with the purpose of preparing for
future flood conditions.
Equitable Investment in Risk Reduction ($5.0M, 12
FTE)
Funding will support sustained and equitable investment in risk
reduction through catalyzing community partnerships. Funds will also
support creation of efficiencies and increase capabilities within
FEMA’s Regional and program offices that
assist our SLTT partners, while maximizing all
available resources across three key assistance programs – Hazard
Mitigation Grant Program, National Dam Safety Program, and
BRIC grant programs.
Flood Hazard Mapping and Floodplain Management Expansion ($4.3M, 30
FTE)
Funding for the NFIP will allow the program to
be staffed to complete the mapping projects initiated to deliver
credible, up-to-date flood hazard information to communities and to
manage development in a way that reduces flood losses, equitably reduces
disaster suffering, encourages nature-based solutions and builds
community resilience.
FY 2023 Major Disaster Estimate ($19.7B, 9,010
FTE) The Budget reflects a major disaster
allocation totaling $19.7B to address ongoing Stafford Act disasters.
The FY 2023 requirement includes more than
$941.0M over the FY 2022 Budget for the
response to COVID-19 and other recovery
projects. Cost estimates are derived from spend plans prepared by
FEMA Regions working with affected states and
localities for ongoing catastrophic disasters, historical average of
obligations for non-catastrophic disasters, allocation for
BRIC, and a reserve to ensure
FEMA maintains the ability to fund initial
response operations for new significant events.
Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center (MWEOC) ($53.0M)
MWEOC has 565 acres and is a national asset
providing resilient infrastructure, facilities, logistics support,
communications, operations centers, and support personnel for a wide
variety of vital government functions. It supports 30 plus different
departments and agencies’ continuity missions. FY
2023 funds support facilities construction and modernization
projects at the site.
Emergency Food and Shelter Program – Humanitarian Relief ($24.0M)
The Budget includes an increase of $24.0M to provide critical resources
to migrants crossing the southern border and communities providing
humanitarian relief to the thousands of families and individuals that do
so, as well as any other humanitarian crisis that may arise. Funds will
support providing food, shelter, transportation,
COVID-19 testing, and care associated with
recommended quarantining and isolation of this population.
Emergency Management Institute (EMI) Revitalization ($8.0M, 4
FTE) To advance the Administration priorities
of climate resilience and equity, EMI
Revitalization will modernize e-Campus systems, expand satellite
partnerships, streamline course catalog, develop executive crisis
leadership program, and facilitate emergency management thought
leadership. This work will transform EMI to a
National Emergency Management college, continuing
EMI’s 70-year history of educating and
training the national security workforce to meet the current risks of
climate change and other emergent, persistent, and frequent hazards.
Support for Incident Management (IM) Workforce ($6.4M, 37
FTE)
This increase funds information technology and human capital specialists
needed to recruit, hire, equip, and support a significant expansion of
FEMA’s IM Workforce. Funding will also support
non-pay costs associated with hiring, training, and equipping of
incident management workforce enabling FEMA to
successfully execute its disaster response and recovery functions.
FEMA will use an additional $10.0M from
DRF carryover balances to support the IM
Workforce for a total increase of $16.4M.
Non-Stafford Act Incident Management Assistance Team (IMAT) ($4.3M, 21
FTE)
Funds will provide FEMA with a ready-made
capability to support the growing number of contingencies related to
complex incidents that are not related to a specific disaster
declaration under the Stafford Act.
